Canada is poor relative to the US as I discussed in a previous post. Though they have lots of available land, home prices are very high, much higher than in the US because of regulations and fees. Similarly, it is hard to start a business in Canada, and salaries are lower. Again the major problems appear to be regulations and taxes. The Western Provences, Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan complain regularly that their interests are being ignored. So, earlier this year, Alberta’s legislature approved a referendum for separation from Canada. Independence! In part the reason is that Albertans find they are financing the rest of Canada. Independence is something that Quebec attempted Canada some 30 years ago. There the “exit” vote lost by a mere 0.6%, and the argument to stay was mostly economic: Quebec needed Canada’s money. Alberta does not. It funds Quebec and every other Provence of Canada.

Trump praised Alberta’s decision to Canada’s dismay. Some Albertans want to want to join the US, a fulfillment of James Knox Polk’s vision. It may not be legal, though. Alberta judge, Shaina Leonard declared Alberta separation unconstitutional as “secession from Canada will have an impact” on native groups. Why this is different from Quebec, I don’t know. The Alberta legislature is now preparing for a referendum on whether Alberta should “commence the legal process … to hold a binding provincial referendum”. This is a referendum on whether to have a referendum.

Currently Alberta is the only Provence that puts in more to the federal government than it takes out, and the disparity is huge. The Provence of Alberta has more oil than most oil countries, more that Iraq, Kuwait, or Norway, for example. It currently produces ~4.1 million barrels of oil per day. Valued at the current world rate of $100/bbl, that’s about $150 billion per year. If you divide by 5 million Albertans, the oil revenue alone is ~$30,000 per man woman or child, or $100,000 per voter. To this you can add bountiful natural gas, other minerals, and a strong industry, and you see a lot of info e that federal Canada “redistributes” east. Because of Canada’s parliamentary system Alberta has virtually no rights. Each vote is counted equally, and almost every one in Canada believes Albertans should not keep their bonanza. The central Canadian government provides programs, it’s true, healthcare with long waits and medical-assisted suicide. They also policed face masks for truckers, taking away the truckers savings and trucks if Canada found the mandates were being ignored.

Federal politicians regularly blast Albertans for being racist and stingy. Despite redistribution, Canada runs a deficit, about 15% of income, and is the only G7 country in recession, currently. Canada’s liberal government hopes to solve this by a trade move from the US to China. It’s unlikely to work, as China seems to be in recession too.

The polls claim that Albertan’s are against separation from Canada, but the polls against Quebec suspension were similar. No one wants to be seen as an enemy of the state. When the Quebec separation vote came 30 years ago, non-secession won by a mere 0.6% — and Quebec was not financially self-sufficient. We’ll have to see how it goes. Culturally Alberta is more like the US than like the rest of Canada; they could go full Trump mode.

Robert Buxbaum, July 2, 2026