Dubai is a gorgeous, clean, modern city in the Emirates state of Abu Dhabi. As such it is Abu Dhabi’ as it were, Abu Dhabi’s gateway into being a modern Islamic Republic. All religions are respected in the city of Dubai, though not elsewhere in the Emirates. Alcohol and nightclubs are permitted, even encouraged, along with western books, movies, and music. There’s fast Internet, low taxes, free newspapers, and great plane connections via Emirates Air, along with premiere hotels, Ferraris, lots of them, and villas on peninsulas shaped like palm trees. Dubai is promoted with the phrase, “It’s better in Dubai,” Other promotions included having the Sex in the City movie filmed there and hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup. And then Iran attacked with 5000 drones and missiles, hitting hotels, below and oil shipping. Three Emirates oil ships struck in the last week alone, leaving one crew member dead, 20 injured. Some rich people are fleeing, while others are staying. The airport is still open, as are the eyes of some rich folks in the US and Europe. It’s not so great in Dubai, but I don’t think Dubai is going away.
A similar pattern is playing out in Qatar’s western-style gateway area. This is a section of Doha the capital city with alcohol, fat internet, air-conditioning, western religion, movies, and books (and lots of folks buying gold). I’d written, with wonder about Qatar, with its rich citizens and indentured, workers. You might think that Doha would be safer from Iranian missiles, since Qatar is Shia Mulsim, like Iran, but it too is being hit by Iran, and not only in the western area. Iran recently destroyed Qatar’s largest natural gas and oil facilities, and their helium plant. The problem for Iran is that Qatar isn’t totally Islamic and anti western. Clearly, Qatar has strayed.
Saudi Arabia too has built the beginnings of a gateway city, NEOM, more conservative religiously than Qatar or Dubai, but with robots, solar energy, and zero cars. They too are being attacked by Iran to reduce western contact and alliance, and insure that the king doesn’t sign the Abraham accords with Israel and Abu Dhabi. I’m not sure it’s working though the king has slowed construction.
While these attacks are clearly a setback for western-enclaves in the Islamic world, I don’t expect that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi will shut theirs down, nor necessarily scale them back. Dubai, Doha, and Neom are seen as a necessary part of a post oil future. As such, the attacks on these cities will only bring resentment of Iran’s mullahs and increased spending on defensive technology. The attacked countries mayl ally with each other too, something unlikely before the attacks. I expect to see Trump’s Abraham accords expand, with the other countries forming a defense cooperation to stop Iran. Thus, I see a more peaceful Middle East. I also hope that the gateway cities will cause conservative Muslims to become more comfortable with Western ideas and behaviors.
I don’t expect Iran to join in this pro-Western change, nor do I expect Iran’s influence to weaken soon. They have oil and a powerful ally, China, who depends on Iranian oil. China benefits as Iran fights its proxy war, or it did before sanctions. I expect Iran to keep making trouble, more trouble as soon as Democrats take power in 2 years and end sanctions. There is much sympathy for Iran and Palestine among young Democrats, and even among conservatives there is a growing hatred of Israel, and a shift to Palestine. I’m not sure I understand the attraction, but then I don’t understand “Queers for Palestine” either. Most liberals are unhappy. Even with a more powerful Iran, I see a good future for cities like Dubai, and I see a more peaceful Middle East and a better world as a result.
Robert Buxbaum September 10, 2026