Category Archives: Health

The logic to think that prenatal Tylenol causes autism and ADHD

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Robert Kennedy Jr. recently started the process to add a warning to the labels of acetaminophen products, including Tylenol, noting a correlation between its use during pregnancy and autism and ADHD in children. The advisability of this is controversial. Experts at Scientific American say “the evidence against Tylenol is thin,” The British Journal, Nature, goes further: “It’s Dangerous to Avoid Tylenol While Pregnant”. Similarly, Barak Obama: “Trump’s announcement is violence against the truth.” Nature’s logic, and Obama’s, is that any risk of Autism and ADHD is smaller than the risk to pregnant women if they do not take fever medication. Given the confusion and politicalization of the topic, I thought I’d write about the magnitude of the risk, and the logic to think Tylenol causes autism and ADHD.

The evidence that there is some, large risk agent is the tremendous rise in the prevalence of autism and ADHD over the last 50 years, see chart above. The rise t matches the rise in the use of Tylenol as opposed to older medications, like aspirin. Correcting for other changes (confounders), this Oxford study finds 95% certainty association of acetaminophen with ADHD; care being taken to remove confounders. Also of note is that, none of the studies suggesting was Tylenol is safe for pregnant women looked at neural development damage in children. None.

In terms of the magnitude of the Tylenol effect, this study from Johns Hopkins, compared fetal blood levels of acetaminophen enzymes (measured in the umbilical cord) to the risk of autism and ADHD. As shown below, there is roughly a three-times increase in risk for both in every sub-group of child: male and female, black and white, pre-term and full term, drug user or not, breast fed or not, fevered mother or not. Children with higher blood-acetaminophen levels (2nd, 3rd tercile) always have a higher chance of ADHD and ASD — about 3 times higher– than children in the lower tercile.

The higher cohorts of blood Tylenol is associated with higher risk of ASD and ADHD for every subgroup.

This European study found a similar association, but measured Tylenol use based on interviews. Between these studies, I find it reasonable to advise caution. This is the sort of evidence that caused us to put cancer warnings on cigarettes, caused us to caution against alcohol during pregnancy, and caused the mandate for seatbelts. This is usually what scientists use, it’s the best approach we have. I do not suggest dropping all fever medication, but suggest switching to older medications, like aspirin, or cool showers, or following the Harvard medical journal advice to take Tylenol in the minimum dose.

An upside to the political divide is that we’re likely to have better evidence in coming years. in Republican-leaning states, doctors have mostly favored the advisory. Meanwhile,in D-leaning states women are ignoring the advisory, some even filming themselves taking extra Tylenol, in distain for Trump. These two groups provide a controlled study, so that we should have have better data regarding Tylenol safety in 2-3 years.

Dr. Robert E. Buxbaum, October 12, 2025

Liberals are unhappy, every demographic less happy than conservatives.

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Liberals are less happy than conservatives, a finding that has been found consistently in every study since the first in 1972. It persists for Americans whether Democrats or Republicans are in control in Washington, and holds true for both sexes, and all sexualities, all ages, all races and incomes, all education levels. An example is the 2022 Cooperative Election Study from Tufts University. According to the survey, organized by Nate Silver for his silver bulletin, here, liberals of every demographic are significant less happy than conservatives in that demographic, with an average difference of 15 points on a 0 to 100 scale.

Graphic from Nate Silver’s “Silver bulletin,” based on data from the 2022 cooperative election survey.

I note that 2020-2022 was the height of the Biden administration, with Democrats in control of the entire government.

Some of this can be explained perhaps by self-selection: A liberal may considered a person who don’t like the current situation, and wants it changed, while a conservative, in some sense is someone happy with the status quo. Of course this isn’t the full story, since conservatives too generally want to see change — smaller government, less regulation and taxes, and the like. The real gap in happiness, then seems to come from a difference in perception of how important the change is, or how bad things are now. Liberals, on TV at least, claim that America is awful, among the worst countries ever: racist, sexist, colonialist, violent, stupid, fascist. They blame the US for warm temperatures and suffering Iranian women, finding half of their fellow Americans – those who don’t agree– “a basket of deplorables,” to quote Hillary Clinton, where half of these conservatives needed re-education, in her view, and the other half were beyond re-education. Conservatives are just not as unhappy. They still think that they can “Make America Great Again”, perhaps by capturing something of the good old days (1945, say).

Devyn Brandt (They/Them) orientation advisor for Washington University. My guess is liberal, and not very happy.

The happiness gap has increased with time and extends into mental health. In the 2022 Cooperative Election Study  found that, 16% of all Americans who voted for Joe Biden had depression in 2020. Going further, 45% of self-described liberals said their mental health was poor. By contrast 51% of conservatives said their mental health was excellent, and only 19% said it was poor. This might be self-delusion, still it is consistent year to year. A year later this 2023 depression study from Columbia University found only 20% of liberals who believed they had excellent mental health while 51% of conservatives believed their mental health was excellent. Presenting this another way, among voters who said their mental health was poor, 45% identified as liberal, and 19% as conservative. The remaining 36% were either independent, or decided not to answer the question.

Going back to an older Pew study 2008, 47% of Republicans said they were “very happy” compared to 28% of liberal Democrats. All of the advances since then, have not made liberals less unhappy, if this 2019 study is to be trusted, they keep looking for meaning in their lives, and things to be unhappy about.

Some things make liberals happy, though, and one of them is money. The highest income liberals (>$100k per household) are happier than poorer liberals, but only as happy as the lowest income conservatives (<$30k/ household), 60% in both cases. Education helps too, but not as much, and religion. Political activism only makes things worse, both for liberals and conservatives. My advice for the summer: try ice cream. It always works for me. And this song from the musical Iolanthe, where the guard outside the parliament confides that political stance is inborn, with particular opinions handed down by others, including a band of mischievous fairies.

Robert Buxbaum, June 24, 2025

The CPAP, not totally useless.

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CPAP machines (Continuous Positive Airway Pressure machines) are very commonly prescribed to prevent sleep apnea. They were originally prescribed to prevent heart attack, and despite minimal evidence that they help, they are still paid for by most insurance, including medicare. Sleep apnea is associated with snoring and with being overweight. The theory, supported by minimal evidence, was that stopping the apnea would prevent heart attack.

My C-PAP/ APAP. shown with distilled water

Five years ago, I found myself among those prescribed. CPAP, and found no evidence they extended life, or prevented any heart problem. I wrote this blog post, explaining what I thought was going on. I suspected some health risks, and found no obvious sleep benefit; I felt claustrophobic and woke with sniffles. I quickly stopped using the device.

Last month I retried my CPAP, now with a better fitting mask (nose only) and better humidification. I now find sleep benefits and no sniffles, but still see no sign of health benefits. “Even among participants with good CPAP adherence there was no significant reduction in cardiovascular risk in the two largest trials.2,3 ” There also appear to be some bad side effects. If the pressures are too high, the CPAP can cause inflammation and micro-tears in the lung. This is the same problem that killed people on ventilators during COVID. CPAP users show significantly increased inflammation markers, with higher inflammation the higher the pressure used. Lower pressure settings seems to result in fewer heart problems, too, see figure below. The number of cumulative adverse heart-events is lower for patients, randomly selected, who used a pressure below 7 cm H2O (lower than 0.1 psi). Most events happen in the first few months, and don’t know why. The researchers do not comment on this.

From the Lancet, Y. Peter et al, Volume 101, 105015, March 2024, with with results adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. Pressures below ≤7 cmH2O show fewer events. Most CPAPs are set to higher pressures, about 10cmH2O

I suspect that heart attack and stroke are mostly driven by BMI, lack of exercise, and by eating too much of the wrong foods (e.g. waffles, see here). I suspect the CPAP does nothing for this beyond improved sleep, and that, at the current pressure settings, it may be harmful.The health risks might have put me off the machine, except I like getting better sleep.

I figured I could try decreasing the pressure, hoping to get good sleep with fewer lung risks. I can’t reduce usage because healthcare pays for supplies only if you use the device 4+ hours per night, tracking your usage over the internet to make sure. I discovered that my device, an AirSense 10, was set to deliver pressures between 5 and 15 cmH2O resulting in an average delivery pressure of 10.2 cmH2O. I decreased the range to 4.6-12.4 cm, then further, to 5-9 cmH2O. So far, the machine shows no reduction in average pressure(?!) but my sleep is OK.

On a national level, I suspect that this device should not be prescribed as often as it is, and suspect that the set pressures should be lower. There is a replication crisis in science; drug statistics tend to be bogus, and food results too. If it were me I’d look for CPAP research to show real health benefits, I’d use linear regression with an r-squared test for significance, as here.

Robert Buxbaum, March 30, 2025.

Waffle house life and cardiac death

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Cardiac death rates vary by a factor of six or more across regions of the US, from very low rates in Arizona, Utah, Washington, about 1/1000/year, to well over 6/1000/year in the US southeast. This is shown in the map below based on CDC data from 2013, mapped by Dr. Robert-J using ArcGIS Pro in 2015, Source here.

The author of this graph humorously(?) overlayed the cardiac death data with yellow dots showing the location of all US waffle houses. I infer from this something that Dr. J. denies: that waffle houses, or waffle eating is a significant contributor to these cardiac deaths. Other possibilities (my own list) include opioids, pollution, low exercise, depression, and poor healthcare. Still, I can’t help thinking that diet is a big contributor.

Here is a more up-to-date map, by county, showing that cardiac deaths still concentrate in the southeast, but now they are joined by Nevada and eastern California. I downloaded this map directly from the CDC, but this time, the map is in terms of Age Adjusted Mortality Rates, that is lives lost per 100,000 persons, relative to some ideal, people living in Minnesota, Colorado, and Massachusetts, I suppose. As before, the red areas are those with a higher cardiac death rates. Why are West Californians healthier and folks in Minnesota and Colorado, perhaps because they exercise more, and exercise is a good thing, but these could also be areas with better healthcare, or fewer opioids. Some cities are healthier, some are worse. Why?.

Things have been getting worse in recent years. From 2019 to 2022, the national Cardio-vascular disease caused AAMR increased by 9.3%. Some of this may be COVID or the COVID vaccine, I suppose, or depression. Men seem to be hit harder than women, with the same regional differences. As shown in the map at right, southeast rural men have a lifespan more than 4 years shorter than the national average, or about 7 years shorter than that for women. And this is on top of their already significantly shorter lifespan compared to other developed countries. There’s no obvious reason.

As a marketing thought, assuming that the cause of cardiac death is that people eat high-carb, high fat meals, then the owners of Waffle House might have noticed, and chosen to build there. If so this would be a case where apparent causation is reversed: the relationship between Waffle houses and death is that Waffle houses were built where people were dying of heart disease. It’s a scary thought, but not unlikely. I’d expect new Waffle houses would appear in mid-Michigan, mid Georgia, northern New Jersey, and NW Indiana. These are places where people will likely like the food and ambiance. I’ve taken a light hearted view here because the alternative is too depressing. These rates are dramatic and horrible. I hope RFK Jr. will help increase US lifespans, but have no great faith in him. Trump gave him two years to show significant improvements.

Robert Buxbaum, February 24, 2025.

We’re depressed, allergic, overweight, alone, and demented. What causes what?

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Among the wonders of the western world is how many people are allergic to nuts compared to a few decades ago, and to gluten, and to a host of other things that hardly anyone was allergic to 50 years ago. Perhaps it’s a change in perception, but it doesn’t seem that way.

When I was in public school in NY, back in the 1960s, there was a subsidized lunch program serving, every day, peanut butter sandwiches. Peanut butter is nearly totally fat. It was ladled each day, from a giant tub, provided by the USDA, and slathered on USDA bread along with jelly from some other vat. The smell filled the lunch area, and the fats and sugars filled our stomaches. No one seemed bothered by the nuts, and no one showed obvious signs of passing out. And despite the ill diet, we were less obeease than today. Even today, in poor countries, thy still serve massive peanut butter dishes, or bread covered in lard, and these countries show fewer allergy problems, and less obesity in general.

Perhaps it is the lack of exposure to peanuts in the US that caused the allergy (sounds almost plausible), and maybe it’s the dietetic food that causes obesity, and the glut of non-gluten that causes gluten allergies. These connections may be false, but If true, it would suggest we’re in for many more problems.

Moving to depression and dementia. We’re seeing more and more of both, and at earlier ages. In our era, virtually everyone over 80 shows signs of clinical dementia, often Alzheimer’s dementia, but the rates are rising, especially in those 55-70, and it seems most every adult is depressed. I don’t know why, though lots of people on the internet have speculative explanations. There are also cures, and perhaps some work. The research behind at least one of the best hopes for an Alzheimers cure was shown to be falsified, just made up. Not that funding was stopped quite, highlighting another problem that is becoming more common: people in trust positions no longer behave in a trustworthy way. Nor are they punished for lying. Strange to add that an anti-obesity drug, Metformin, seems to actually work at weight loss, and helps against Alzheimers dementia. Then again, from other research, it seems that obesity protects from dementia.

Some of the problem seems to be societal, a lack of friendship and companionship. I could imagine that isolation leads to dementia, depression, and weight gain. Another thought, pushed by RFK Jr., is that new drugs and vaccines are responsible for allergies and ADHD, along with changes in diet. It’s possible. At least some comes from early diagnosis, and a change in the definition of dementia. Perhaps that’s the reason for the significant difference state to state. Yesterday’s curmudgeon is redefined as depressed, and drugged (more in some states than others), and becomes isolated (again more in some communities). The disoriented, lonely patient is then given anti anxiety drugs and classified as a dementia patient. It happens in some cases, but there seems to be a rise in real dementia too: the sort of stumbling and blankness that reflects general brain deterioration. As for ADHD, I’m still not convinced this is a new real disease; it could be that’s how boys always behaved.

Would we be less depressed or demented or less autistic with different vaccinations, or different foods, or with more human interaction? Would people be less isolated if they were less depressed or autistic? RFK’s family now claims that RFK Jr is demented himself for even asking these questions. My guess, totally unsupported is that the rise in allergies, dementia, obesity, and depression are related somehow, but I’m not convinced that RFK Jr. has picked out the right connection. What causes what? Perhaps someone can use statistics, or biology experiments to help untangle this stuff. It seems horribly important to the majority of Americans.

Robert Buxbaum, Sept 10, 2024. There was a. bit of a joke in the last comments: my daughter got a degree in epidemiology, and is employed in part to answer just the sort of questions I’ve posed.

Fewer serial killers, more mass shootings, blame unfriendliness not lax gun laws

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It’s hard to notice the lack of something, but there’s been a sharp drop-off in the the number of serial killers. Nearly gone are folks like John Wayne Gacy (the clown killer), Jeffrey Dahmer (severed heads, cannibalism, necrophilia), Gary Ridgway, “The Green River Killer” (71 prostitutes killed). Mostly, they were sexual sadists, men who’d have sex with strangers (able or female) and then kill them. In 1987, there were 198 active in the US and many more inactive; by 2018 it was down to 12. And these few are less-prolific, and less-colorful, like Anthony Robinson, “the shopping cart killer”, who killed 4-6 in DC, transporting the bodies in shopping carts.

It’s not clear why there are so few these days. Perhaps it’s the prevalence of surveillance cameras, or improvements in DNA and other pic technology. But these explanations don’t explain why there were so few before 1960. There were some mass murderers, “Jack the Ripper,” “the Boston Strangler” but few before 1960.

Police like to credit the drop off to their detective skills, but there are still plenty of violent crimes that go unsolved, about half the murders in Detroit for example, or most of the rapes in Europe. I suspect that serial killing spiked up in the 60s because of a spike in friendliness, and spiked down in the 2000s because it ended. Before the hippy era, people were cautious of gangsters, rapists, homosexuals, and spies under the bed. But that changed in the 60s. Folks thought it was cool to hitchhike, or pick up random guys. Now, we’re back to being cautious.

A personal story: I was visiting Toronto in the late 1980s and someone I didn’t know overheard that I was planning to drive back to Detroit that afternoon. He asked if I would not mind driving his teenaged daughters to Detroit to see their grandmother, and I said “yes.” At the border, the guards asked who these girls were, and I said I didn’t know. I hadn’t asked. The border guards let us through without passports after a call to the grandmother. I would not be as ready to offer a ride today, and the parents would not be as trusting, nor would the guards.

Serial killings are down since 1990, but mass shootings are up.

Despite much the stricter gun laws, there’s been a rise in crime and a steady growth in the number of murderers in our major cities. There’s also been a rise in synagogue attacks, and a rise in mass murders. These folks kill many in one day or as part of gang-drug activity. Stricter gun laws seem to have made things worse, not better. They do not stop the killers and they hamper the defenders. I took a look at synagogue attacks, and find a pistol would have helped.

On a societal level, I think it would help to have fewer illegal aliens, or aliens who enter with no positive record or skills. It would help to have psychological treatment and lockup for crazy folks and prisoners. Currently, we send violent crazy folks out on the streets until they do something true horrific. More consistent prison sentences are needed for criminals too. We’ now’ve come to use the courts for political theater: Biden’s son should not go to jail for years because he lied on a gun purchase, nor should Trump get for putting down a prostitute as “legal fees”. Nor is his half-billion dollar fine appropriate. Minor crime deserves minor punishment. As a result of our crazy courts, violent criminals are let go as with the MSU killings near me. He was a crazy violent black man, and there was no way, in the law to give him a short sentence, or counseling, or job training. When our incarcerated leave prison, they have anger, plus no jobs or skills. Don’t be surprised when these folks turn to violent crime.

Robert Buxbaum, June 23, 2024

Half of Americans want to be kept from voting Trump

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Both Trump and Biden are unpopular. Academics and the press favor Biden, and find it inconceivable that anyone would like Trump but polls show him leading in the country as a whole, and leading in key swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, etc. Some 15.1% more Americans have an unfavorable view of Biden than a favorable view.

Biden’s problems include his age, the border crisis, and the economy. People say they find that essentials are expensive, while luxuries are cheap, and that Biden seems out of touch, perhaps that he favors the rich (the Democratic Party is increasingly the party of billionaires). Then there are religious objections, including to diversity, or gender-affirming child surgery, or abortion till birth and doctor-assisted suicide.

Trump leads in the polls, pointing to misuse of the Justice Department including Republican civil servants fired over phony mask mandates, the many illegal immigrants, the EV agenda, even Trump’s impeachment hearings that began as soon as he was elected, based on a made up “Russian collision” dossier. There’s a claim from Twitter, that the Biden’s DOJ demanded Twitter favor Biden, and then demanded that Trump be “deplatformed”, completely silenced before the election.

The Democrats fire back that Trump is ineligible to be president as he is a seditionist — citing an anti-confederate clause of the 14th amendment. They have so far, removed him from the ballot in two battleground states, Colorado and Maine, and are looking at removing him from the ballot in several others. These moves are surprisingly popular, supported by 49% of voters, despite the fact that Trump leads in the polls.

In New York, the district attorney ran on the platform that he would “get Trump,” that is put him in prison for something, and thus stop his presidential bid. NY has already pulled Trump’s business license and has indicted Trump on 48 felony counts based on the assertion that he paid a prostitute and called it legal fees on his internal books. They also claim he over-valued his buildings. No one has ever been charged or convicted on such crimes before this, but it seems certain he will be found guilty in NY. Either way, it’s is a big drain on Trump’s time and money, and the case allows the judge to command Trump not speak. Meanwhile, the ex-prosecutor has an open mike to claim he heads a crime family, now that he’s handed the case over to another DA. The judge has threatened to jail Trump for saying the charges are bogus and the treatment unfair.

In Colorado, the decision the case is stronger – sedition. They decision to remove Trump’s name from the ballot was made by a 5 to 4 vote in the Democrat-majority Supreme Court. In Maine the Secretary of State removed his name, acting alone. The claim is that what happened January 7 was not a protest, but an insurrection, and that Trump is guilty for it, along with many others who didn’t participate. Further they maintain that it is a false narrative that it was the FBI who entered the capital, fanning the flames as a sting operation against Trump. Similarly false is any claim that the Democrats skewed the election by stuffing the ballot box or overruling laws that required voter ID. That Trump says otherwise shows that Trump is a danger to democracy, they say. They find extremely offense that he calls them the “Department of Injustice.”

According to a January 16, 2024 Ispos, ABC poll, here nearly every voter who favors Biden favors removing Trim from the ballot. Most do not require that Trump be convicted. Not that it’s unlikely that Trump will be convicted of something. In NY it’s likely to be for paying a prostitute and for saying his buildings are worth more than the DA thinks they are. In Georgia, the DA took the unusual step of indicting Trump’s lawyers and his witnesses too. She thus prevents anyone who could testify for Trump from doing so. The Georgia DA seems to have done some other illegal things, but it seems certain that she’ll win her case, even if she goes to jail in the process. Several other battle-ground states’ DAs have said thay will remove Trump from the ballot, or try. Among these are Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia — states where Trump is the leading candidate.

Behi d the effort to remove Trump, guiltier not, is a generally low opinion of the legal system. Polls show that 53% of America believes that judges decide based on their politics, not on law. If Trump is found guilty, they believe it’s politics. If he’s found innocent, tit’s also politics, according to the majority of Americans. Given that folks are convinced the judges are crooked, they want to make sure that their crooked judges are the ones to stay in power, and those with other views are kept from office. It’s a tribal view of justice, not uncommon in 3rd world countries. Man for all seasons is a classic movie/ play about it.

In Russia and China the same tribal view of justice prevails, and the same story is playing out. Putin is running for president in 2024, and has take the precaution to jail his opposition as seditionist. Chinese chairman Xi has not only jailed his opposition, but also most major business leaders. The people in these countries don’t seem to mind, and seem genuinely supportive. The press there, as here, can’t understand why anyone would support anyone but the boss, and have warned against false news in an eerily unified voice.

Efforts are underway to keep Trump off the ballot in these states where he is winning, plus Wisconsin and Minnesota, states where he’s tied or losing by a small margin. A majority people don’t want him or Biden, so removal is popular.

Robert Buxbaum, Jan 31, 2024. To me, the removal of Trump from the ballot is related to the desire for term limits, and for our support, in Ukraine for the elimination of upcoming elections. Folks like democracy, in theory, but need to make sure the wrong person doesn’t win. It’s a paradox.

Cybertruck an almost certain success

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Leading up to the Cybertruck launch 4 weeks ago, the expert opinion was that it was a failure. Morgan Stanley, here dubbed it as one, as did Rolling Stone here. Without having driven the vehicle, the experts at Motor trend, here, declared it was worse than you thought, “a novelty” car. I’d like to differ. The experts point out that the design is fundamentally different from what we’ve made for years. They claim it’s ugly, undesirable, and hard to build. Ford’s F-150 trucks are the standard, the top selling vehicle in the US, and Cybertruck looks nothing like an F-150. I suspect that, because of the differences, the Cybertruck can hardly fail to be a success in both profit and market share.

Cybertruck pulls a flat-bed trailer at Starbase.

Start with profit. Profit is the main measure of company success. High profit is achieved by selling significant numbers at a significant profit margin. Any decent profit is a success. This vehicle could trail the F-150 sales forever and Musk could be the stupidest human on the planet, so long as Tesla sells at a profit, and does so legally, the company will succeed. Tesla already has some 2 million pre-orders, and so far they show no immediate sign of leaving despite the current price of about $80,000. Unless you think they are all lying or that Musk has horribly mispriced the product, he should make a very decent profit. My guess is he’s priced to make over $10,000 per vehicle, or $20B on 2 million vehicles. Meanwhile, no other eV company seems to be making a profit.

The largest competing electric pickup company is Rivian. They sold 16,000 electric trucks in Q3 2023, but the profit margin is -100%. This is to say, they lose $1 for every $1 worth of sales –and that’s unsustainable. Despite claims to the contrary, a money-losing business is a failure. The other main competitors are losing too. Ford is reported to lose about $50,00 per eV. According to Automotive News, here, last week, Ford decided to cut production of its electric F-150, the Lightning, by 50%. This makes sense, but provides Cybertruck a market fairly clear of US e-competition.

2024 BYD, Chinese pickup truck

Perhaps the most serious competitor is BYD, a Chinese company backed by the communist government, and Warren Buffet. They are entering the US market this month with a new pickup. It might be profitable, but BYD is relatively immune to profitability. The Chinese want dominance of the eV market and are willing to lose money for years until they get it. Fortunately for Tesla, the BYD truck looks like Rivian’s. Tesla’s trucks should exceed them in range, towing, and safety. BYD, it seems, is aiming for a lower price point and a different market, Rivian’s.

A video, here, shows the skin of a Cybertruck is bulletproof to 9mm, shotgun, and 45 caliber machine gun fire. Experts scoff at the significance of bulletproof skin — good for folks working among Mexican drug lords, or politicians, or Israelis. Tesla is aiming currently for a more upscale customer, someone who might buy a Hummer or an F-250. This is more usable and cheaper.

Don’t try this with other trucks.

Another way Cybertruck could fail is through criminal activity. Musk could be caught paying off politicians or cheating on taxes or if the trucks fail their safety tests. So far, Cybertruck seems to meet Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards by a good margin. In a video comparison, here, it appears to take front end collisions as well as an F-150, and appears better in side collisions.

This leaves production difficulty. This could prevent the cybertruck from being a big success, and the experts have all harped on this. The vehicle body is a proprietary stainless steel, 0.07″ thick. Admittedly it’s is hard to form, but Tesla seems to manage it. VIN number records indicate that Tesla had delivered 448 cybertrucks as Friday last week, many of them to showrooms, but some to customers. Drone surveys of the Gigafactory lot show that about 19 are made per day. That’s a lot more than you’d see if assembly was by hand. Assuming a typical learning curve, it’s reasonable to expect some 600 will be delivered by December 31, and that production should reach 6000 per month in mid 2024. At that rate, they’ll be making and selling at the same rate as Rivian or Ford, and making real money doing it. The stainless body might even be a plus, deterring copycat competition. Other pluses are the add-ons, like the base-camp tent option, a battery extension, a ramp, and (it’s claimed) some degree of sea worthiness. Add-ons add profit and deter direct copying (for a time).

Basecamp, tent option.

So why do I think the experts are so wrong? My sense is that these people are experts because of long experience at other companies — the competitors. They know what was tried, and that innovation failed. They know that their companies chose not to make anything like a Cybertruck, and not to provide the add-ons. They know that the big boys avoid “novelty cars” and add-ons. There is an affinity among experts for consensus and sure success, the success that comes from Chinese companies, government support and international banking. If the Cybertruck success is an insult to them and their expertise. Nonetheless, if Cybertruck succeeds, they will push their companies towards a more angular design plus add-ons. And they will claim cybertruck is no way novel, but that government support is needed to copy it.

Robert Buxbaum, December 25, 2023.

Shrunken clothes and keffiyehs: anti Trump fashion

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Donald Trump has a lot of signature behaviors, including his “America first” politics, his hair, his ‘tan,’ his way of speech, and his way of wearing suits. Half of America finds them attractive or at least OK, while the other half finds them super-unattractive. Trump seems to have a super-power, that there is no middle. Those who dislike him dislike everything about him to his policies to his clothes. Let Trump propose immigration control, and the opposition demands open borders. Let Trump propose tariffs, an ole Republican approach to diplomacy that is thought to bring in Jobs, and the opposition (even unions!) goes crazy for free trade.

Trump likes dark colors, long ties, long jackets, and long sleeves on his suits.

In the book “Fear”, by Bob Woodward’s first story is about folks on Whitehouse staff stealing Trump’s first tariff proposal from his desk in an effort to prevent it being signed. Whatever they thought of the tariff (it was not that weird, and didn’t do much) the fact that they stole it showed the dramatic reaction people have. In this case, folks who otherwise understood that they are there to serve the president, not to overturn his policies.

LeBron James in the Thom Browne, Anti Trump look. The pants are too short, as are the sleeves and jacket. Note the dull grey color and the short, dull-grey tie. The fellow behind him is dressed normal or Trumpish: dark clothes, long sleeves, bright, long tie.

In terms of fashion, the anti-Trump fever is to react against Trump’s choice of suits in dark colors, paired with bright ties that hang below the waist. The anti men’s fashion has moved to dull grey suits and short, grey ties. Trumps’s suits’s typically have extra-long long sleeves and long pant legs that hit the shoe-top. He likes long jackets too, that to me look vaguely like Lincoln’s. The fashion back-lash is men are wearing ridiculously short pants and jackets, with socks showing.

LeBron James, at right, is wearing a complete mens, anti-Trump look, likely a Thom Browne suit, a very expensive ill fit. This suit doesn’t look comfortable, but it’s fashion, and as I’ve said before, you’ve got to suffer for fashion.

There is also a woman’s version of anti Trump fashion. The Trump women wore feminine, closely fitting clothing and wore their hair long. The anti-Trump women’s look is the opposite; it includes short hair and masculine, often covered. This is paired with loose fitting male clothes: cargo pants or combat fatigues. Topping it off, ideally ideally is a checkered, keffiyeh scarf, either over the head or around the neck. The style of scarf was made popular by former PLO head, Yassar Arafat. This look is particularly popular on college campuses and at demonstrations. It implies that the wearer supports Palestine (Trump supported Israel), and shows you are part of the cool set. The wearer, herself, is typically is not in favor of kidnapping or rape or putting babies in oven, but they are so strongly anti Israel and Trump that they are OK with it, especially if it is Jews being kidnapped, rabed, or cooked alive. They will call for Jews to be gassed or tortured. It’s part of being in the in-crowd, and antisemitism is what’s in these days — it’s been popular for many centuries.

The women’s anti-Trump look includes short hair and a keffiyeh scarf. Photo from WRLN Florida.

It is a misconception to think that those wearing the keffiye don’t understand that they would not live long if they had to dwell among the Arabs they support. These feminists do understand, as do the ‘Queers for Palestine’. They’d never want to live in even the most moderate Arab country, the same way that those supporting Mao would never want to live in China under Mao. It is fashion, and like all fashion, it’s a mob behavior that exists only for fashion’s sake. In this case there is the added advantage that you get to hit Jews and break their windows — something that is particularly attractive for feminist women, I notice; the majority of people at the Palestine protests are women.

Robert Buxbaum November 7, 2023.

Canada’s doctor-assisted suicide killed 10,064 in 2021

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Canada’s healthcare is free to the user. It’s paid for by taxes, and it includes a benefit you can’t get in the US: free, doctor assisted suicide, euthanasia. This is a controversial benefit, forbidden in the Hippocratic oath because it’s close to murder, and includes the strong possibility of misuse of trust. Assistance by a trusted professional can be a bit likes coercion, and that starts to look like murder — especially since the professional often has a financial incentive to see you off.

From Charlie Hebdot (a French, humor magazine): The medical association refuses to participate in euthanasia — Why? People are already dining quite well on their own waiting in the emergency room.

In 2021, according to Statistics Canada, Canada assisted the suicide of 10,064 people, 3.3% of all Canadian deaths. There were about 4,000 more, non-assisted suicides. In Quebec, the Canadian Provence where Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) is most popular, 5.1% of deaths result from MAID. The Netherlands has a similar program that results in 4.8% of deaths. In Belgium, it’s 2.3%. These countries’ suicide rates are far higher than in the US, and account for far more deaths, per capita than from guns in the US. My guess is that suicide is common because it is free and professional. It’s called “Dignity in Dying,” in Europe, a title that suggests that old folks who don’t die this way are undignified.

In Canada, about 80% of those who requested MAiD were approved. A lot of the remainder were folks who died or changed their mind before receiving the fatal dose. If you attempt suicide on your own, it’s likely you won’t succeed, and you may not try again. With doctor assisted suicide, you’re sure to succeed (even if you change your mind after you get your lethal shot?)

In Canada you don’t have to be terminally ill to get MAiD, you just have to be in pain, and extreme psychological pain counts. Beginning March 17, 2024, depression will be added as a legitimate reason. According to Canadian TV news, depressives are lining up (read some interviews here). Belgium and Netherlands allows elders to be euthanized for dementia, and children to be euthanized on the recommendation of their parents. France passed similar legislation, but the doctors refused to go along, see cartoon. I applaud the French doctors.

Rodger Foley says he’s being pressured to ask for medical suicide, picture from the NY Post

There have been persistent claims that Canadian doctors and nurses push assisted suicide on poor patients, telling them how much bother they are and how much resources they are using. There has been an outcry in British and American newspapers, e.g. here in the Guardian, and in the NY Post, but not in Canada, so far. Rodger Foley, a patient interviewed by the NY Post, recorded conversations where his doctors and nurses put financial pressure on him. “They asked if I want an assisted death. I don’t. I was told that I would be charged $1,800 per day [for hospital care]. “I have $2 million worth of bills. Nurses here told me that I should end my life.” He claims they went so far as to send a collection agency to further pressure him. In another case, a disabled Canadian veteran asked for a wheelchair ramp, and was told to apply for MAiD.

Even without outside pressure, many people seeking MAiD often cite financial need as part of the reason. A 40 year old writer interviewed by Canadian television said that he can’t work and lives in poverty on a disability payment of just under $1,200 a month. “You know what your life is worth to you. And mine is worthless.”

The center of the argument is the value of a person in a social healthcare state when their economic value is less than the cost of keeping them alive. Here, Sabine Hossenfelder, an excellent physicist, argues that the best thing one could do for global warm and to preserve resources is to have fewer people. Elon Musk says otherwise, but Ms Hossenfelder claims this only shows he is particularly unworthy. There’s a Germanic logic here that gave us forced euthanasia in the 1940s.

I find euthanasia abhorrent, especially when it’s forced on children, the elderly, and depressed folks. I also reject the scary view of global warming, that it is the death of the earth. I’ve argued that a warm earth is good, and that a cold earth is bad. Also, that people are good, that they are the reason for the world, not its misfortune. It seems to me that, if suicide aid must be provided, state-funded hospitals should not provide it. They have a financial incentive to drop non-paying, annoying patients. That seems to be happening in Canada. A patient must be able to trust his or her doctor, and that requires a belief that the doctor’s advice is for his or her good. Unfortunately, Canadian politicians have decided otherwise. I say hurray for the doctors of France for not going along.

Robert Buxbaum, April 25, 2023. The medical profession is shady even when you pay for services, see Elvis Presley’s prescription. There’s always a financial interest. Even based on old data, the US is not a particularly high-murder country if suicide is considered murder.