Tag Archives: demographics

We’re depressed, allergic, overweight, alone, and demented. What causes what?

Among the wonders of the western world is how many people are allergic to nuts compared to a few decades ago, and to gluten, and to a host of other things that hardly anyone was allergic to 50 years ago. Perhaps it’s a change in perception, but it doesn’t seem that way.

When I was in public school in NY, back in the 1960s, there was a subsidized lunch program serving, every day, peanut butter sandwiches. Peanut butter is nearly totally fat. It was ladled each day, from a giant tub, provided by the USDA, and slathered on USDA bread along with jelly from some other vat. The smell filled the lunch area, and the fats and sugars filled our stomaches. No one seemed bothered by the nuts, and no one showed obvious signs of passing out. And despite the ill diet, we were less obeease than today. Even today, in poor countries, thy still serve massive peanut butter dishes, or bread covered in lard, and these countries show fewer allergy problems, and less obesity in general.

Perhaps it is the lack of exposure to peanuts in the US that caused the allergy (sounds almost plausible), and maybe it’s the dietetic food that causes obesity, and the glut of non-gluten that causes gluten allergies. These connections may be false, but If true, it would suggest we’re in for many more problems.

Moving to depression and dementia. We’re seeing more and more of both, and at earlier ages. In our era, virtually everyone over 80 shows signs of clinical dementia, often Alzheimer’s dementia, but the rates are rising, especially in those 55-70, and it seems most every adult is depressed. I don’t know why, though lots of people on the internet have speculative explanations. There are also cures, and perhaps some work. The research behind at least one of the best hopes for an Alzheimers cure was shown to be falsified, just made up. Not that funding was stopped quite, highlighting another problem that is becoming more common: people in trust positions no longer behave in a trustworthy way. Nor are they punished for lying. Strange to add that an anti-obesity drug, Metformin, seems to actually work at weight loss, and helps against Alzheimers dementia. Then again, from other research, it seems that obesity protects from dementia.

Some of the problem seems to be societal, a lack of friendship and companionship. I could imagine that isolation leads to dementia, depression, and weight gain. Another thought, pushed by RFK Jr., is that new drugs and vaccines are responsible for allergies and ADHD, along with changes in diet. It’s possible. At least some comes from early diagnosis, and a change in the definition of dementia. Perhaps that’s the reason for the significant difference state to state. Yesterday’s curmudgeon is redefined as depressed, and drugged (more in some states than others), and becomes isolated (again more in some communities). The disoriented, lonely patient is then given anti anxiety drugs and classified as a dementia patient. It happens in some cases, but there seems to be a rise in real dementia too: the sort of stumbling and blankness that reflects general brain deterioration. As for ADHD, I’m still not convinced this is a new real disease; it could be that’s how boys always behaved.

Would we be less depressed or demented or less autistic with different vaccinations, or different foods, or with more human interaction? Would people be less isolated if they were less depressed or autistic? RFK’s family now claims that RFK Jr is demented himself for even asking these questions. My guess, totally unsupported is that the rise in allergies, dementia, obesity, and depression are related somehow, but I’m not convinced that RFK Jr. has picked out the right connection. What causes what? Perhaps someone can use statistics, or biology experiments to help untangle this stuff. It seems horribly important to the majority of Americans.

Robert Buxbaum, Sept 10, 2024. There was a. bit of a joke in the last comments: my daughter got a degree in epidemiology, and is employed in part to answer just the sort of questions I’ve posed.

The Ukraine war could go for years. Don’t make a famine.

Russia is a collapsing, corrupt state with no meaningful elections. It is also the biggest exporter of food, fertilizer, gas, and oil. Nearly 2 years ago, it invaded Ukraine, another collapsing, corrupt, food-exporting state with suspended elections.

Both countries are in the midst of demographic collapse, with Ukraine worse off. Ukraine was invaded though, and thus has the better claim to our support. Then again Russia has atomic bombs. It’s also the largest exporter of wheat (or was), while Ukraine is only the 5th largest (or was before the war). The other three big exporters are the US, Canada, and France. We have benefitted financially, but don’t have enough output to make up for lost Russian and Ukrainian production. A likely result is famine unless the war can be brought to a quick end.

Ukraine’s grain terminals in flames, Odessa..

Food and energy prices have gone up too, and will probably continue to rise as the war stretches on. This adds to the risk of a global famine, particularly in the poorest areas of Africa, the Mid East, and India. Unfortunately, the war is still popular in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and the US. It’s good business for our armaments industry, and for our recent mega-farmers (like Bill Gates). Also, for our political and spy class. They spend with little government oversight, and just recently misplaced $16 billion. Surely some of that lost money snuck back to the CIA and our politicians’ pockets. We’d have oversight, but “there’s a war on.”

As wars go, the death toll is low, a total of 354,000 dead and injured on both sides, as revealed by recently leaked documents. This is a small fraction of the countries population. Russia has lost 223,000 soldiers killed or wounded, 0.2% of the population, while the Ukrainians had lost 131,000, 0.3%, many of them civilians. While the war rages, the total death rate in the these two countries was 3.1 million people, 1.8% of the population; they’re dying mostly from heart disease, accidents, and alcoholism.

The Ukrainian population. Lots of retirees, few kids, very few of military age. This is a disaster, not a country.

More destructive than disease, alcoholism and the war is the demographic collapse. The fertility rate in Russia is 1.5 child per woman. In Ukraine it’s even lower, 1.21 per woman. For a stable population, you need at least 2.1 children per woman. Russia and Ukraine have had these low rates for at least 30 years. The net result is that we can expect that Russia’s population will drop by a third or so over the next generation, to about 50 million. This is the equivalent of killing 1/2 of the population; for Ukraine, the prognosis is worse. With few children and decent food supply, we can expect few workers, and increasingly many elderly. This will produce a cultural shift that virtually guarantees the breakup of Ukraine and the Russian federation in 20-30 years. Europe has this problem too, but with no war and some net immigration. The result is a cultural shift of a different type (to Islam). Russia has no immigration, and recently resorted to kidnapping Ukrainian children.

The loss of Russian and Ukrainian exports means famine for the poor importers and food inflation for all.

Europe has stopped taking delivery of Russian food and energy, in solidarity with Ukraine. This benefits the US, but hurts others. Meanwhile Russia has been destroying Ukrainian fields and food infrastructure, blowing a dam last month, flooding Ukraine’s fields, and yesterday destroyed the grain terminals at the port of Odessa,. This was tit-for-tat since Ukraine destroyed a key bridge, and Crimea’s irrigation canal. What’s more, evidence suggests that Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipeline — a key source of finance for Russia and Germany. This sort of tit-for-tat escalated to WWI, fueled by a belief, on both sides, that they would win “decisively and quickly.”

The result of WWI is that Germany was the biggest loser, losing men and land, and suffering a killing famine in 1916. In response, it militarized to prevent war from happening again, and this prevention helped cause WWII. Germany is the biggest loser so far, I’d say, aside from Ukraine, and I fear/expect they will militarize again. Russia too claims a need to increased military production. Biden’s promise that Ukraine’s will join NATO is a threat to Russia, as is our delivery of F16s, missiles and cluster bombs. We are killing Russians, and Putin doesn’t like it. Add to this, that Ukraine’s claim for independence rests mostly on its Nazi collaboration. For the good of everyone, maybe we can dial back, and stop adding gasoline to this fire.

Ukraine deserves our support, but I think that support need not go beyond small-ish arms, energy deliveries, and tariffs on Russian goods. Let’ s not push WWIII. Instead, we should help Ukraine and Russia export food and energy to avoid a famine. And a military Germany does no one any good.

Robert Buxbaum, July 20, 2023. When I was a teen, it was a given that war was bad. Now, for some reason, kids are in for war — here, and jehad in the Mid-East — especially the liberal classes. I find this absolutely bizarre.